© 2003-2006 David Moles
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This is not just an economics problem7 o'clock, April 20, 2005Talking about economics, Brad deLong hits on exactly the problem that’s been bothering me for the last several months about not just everyone from Karl Marx to Ayn Rand, but Proust, Derrida, Dave Sim and Buffy the Vampire Slayer, too. Just what a "Galbraithian" economist would do, however, is not clear. For Galbraith, there is no single market failure, no single serpent in the Eden of perfect competition. He starts from the ground and works up: What are the major forces and institutions in a given economy, and how do they interact? A graduate student cannot be taught to follow in Galbraith's footsteps. The only advice: Be supremely witty. Write very well. Read very widely. And master a terrifying amount of institutional detail. Harry Johnson, in his superb but not entirely fair critique of Milton Friedman's Monetarists, said that in order to carry out an intellectual revolution in economics, one must propound a doctrine that has three qualities: it can be summarized in a single sentence, it provides the young with an excuse for ignoring the work of their elders, and it tells the young what they can do to further the revolution. John Maynard Keynes and Friedman both offered such doctrines. They said, respectively, that "aggregate demand determines supply" and that "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon"; they dismissed their predecessors as obsolete; and they set hundreds of young to the task of estimating consumption, investment, and money-demand functions. Galbraith propounded no such easily summarized doctrine. The closest we can get is: "the world is complicated, and both right-wing ideology and the conventional wisdom that is this age's self-image are terribly wrong." He offered critiques that required you to read and understand old theories, not new theories that allowed you to dismiss everything prior as irrelevant. The result? Nearly all economists today are Paul Samuelson's children. Many are Keynes' children. Friedman, Robert Lucas, Robert Solow, and James Tobin all have plenty of descendants. But there are few Galbraithians on the ground. Would economics as a discipline be stronger if the 50-year-old and 30-year-old economists had a better appreciation of Galbraith? Almost surely. Will the winds of economic fashion shift and cause economists to appreciate Galbraith once again? For that to happen, an astute young economist would have to devote himself to "mathing up" chapters of The Affluent Society and The New Industrial State and publishing them in journals-not a likely prospect in today's risk-adverse academic environment. Brad deLong, reviewing Richard Parker’s John Kenneth Galbraith: His Life, His Politics, His Economics. Here’s my position: “the young” are not wrong in failing to be moved by thinkers whose doctrines cannot be easily summarized. Life is too short to read The Complete Works of Everybody. |
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And yet - if the simplistic explanation for phenomena is simplistic, and the world is really just a lot more complicated than that, with many factors overlapping, the young may not be wrong, but the failure is still lamentable. |
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I agree with aphrael. My own feeling is that a correct response to every question in any field is "it's more complicated than that". That's not likely to move youth (it wouldn't have moved me, fifteen years ago) but I think that the young person who gets it will be better off than the young person who doesn't. |
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Interesting. One of the things that's becoming clear as I read the book in question is that Galbraith, pretty much alone of the prominent post-war economists, disdained the newfound reliance on mathematical rigor. In his view, rigorous mathematical analysis led economists down a false path: when the formula predicted one thing and actual data demonstrated something else, they would reject the data in favor of the results predicted by formulaic formalism. That's part of the reason there is no galbraithian school: he worked on instinct and on political analysis as much, if not more, than he did on mathematical analysis and econometrics ... and modern economics is dominated by the analytical- and econometric crowd. So of course his ideas get short shrift. |
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I dunno, I think I'm with de Long and Galbraith on this one, Mr. Moles. Are "the young" looking for truth, or just their marching orders? Truth is messy. Life may be too short to read the complete works of everybody; that is, however, not a free pass to claim that you know what you're talking about. |
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Ben, when did I say I knew what I was talking about? (And if I did, I’d hope to have a better excuse than that.) I don’t know about the young, but what I’m looking for in a theory is useful tools that advance my understanding. I can enjoy a gestalt look at the universe, but only as poetry. (I’m not discounting the value of poetry, but neither do I think that the value of an argument is necessarily related to how prettily it’s phrased.) What I’d like is for someone to, as deLong puts it, “math up” Galbraith. And Marx. (And maybe even Derrida.) I’ve certainly run into the sort of people — and the sort of economists — you’re describing, Rob (see the economist joke a few threads back). But I think not having the math wouldn’t have saved them from being wrong; it just would have required them to be wrong at greater length and in a less disprovable way. |
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Ah, but the way to defeat idiots who claim that theory is more useful than observation is not to write up your observational results in theoretically rigorous form. That just concedes the point. |
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I suppose then the question is whether it really is an economics problem, after all... The sad part is that deciding whether Galbraith is correct or not (in any of his arguments) is not a matter of trying to poke logical holes in his arguments but of whether or not you recognize the world he describes. I did, mostly, but then as a baseball fan I'm aware that the world I recognize isn't (in large measure) the world that statistics describe. In baseball, I think that the stats on the whole are more accurate than my eyeballs. In economics, I think the stats are for crap, and not trusting my eyeballs leaves me with nuthin'. I'm trying to apply that to other fields, but it isn't working... |
Amen!